not to increase Income Tax or National Insurance for working people still fresh, predictions suggest that businesses will be taking the brunt of the budget. But, are they right? Let’s delve a bit deeper into the key messages and comms we’ve been hearing from the Labour party so far.

While working people may be able to breathe a cautious sigh of relief that their payslips won’t include an increase in contributions towards Income Tax or National Insurance next year, no such exemption was extended to employer contributions. Labour pledged not to increase National Insurance in its manifesto, however the Chancellor has recently suggested that there’s a distinction between employee and employer contributions – strategically leaving the door open for tax rises without breaking their pledge.

In a previously unpredicted turn of events, businesses could see a 1% increase to 14.8% in their NICs, earning the Treasury between £8bn and £9bn to help “balance the books.” But could this affect people’s pay slips?  Rachel Reeves suggested as much in 2022 when she was Shadow Chancellor, opposing then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plans to increase employers NICs as it could lead to a reduction in pay rises for workers and increased costs for consumers.

The party has been tight lipped about tax increases but has potentially been attempting to soften the blow that’s predicted to come, with public statements about not pretending that there aren’t difficult decisions to be made around taxation. Whatever we see on Wednesday, the Prime Minister is promising a “different path” that’s in the interests of working people.

When it comes to the National Minimum Wage (NMW) there is expected to be a further increase, ranging between £11.82 and £12.39 per hour.

While this doesn’t come as a surprise during a budget, the government’s plans to make the NMW the same rate for all adults regardless of age could be a cause of concern, especially for small and medium sized businesses that are already struggling in the current economic climate and will have to facilitate a considerable pay increase for all staff.

This could result in issues similar to those raised by the planned NIC increase, increasing costs for consumers and stagnant wages for employees.

However, Labour has famously been the party for people and their budget comms have been reflecting this, they’ve doubled down on not making life more difficult for “working people” and stated that the “broadest shoulders should bear the heavier burden”, seemingly meaning higher earners or large businesses, something which has spooked organisations such as the Federation of Small Businesses and certain Chief Executives.

The Apprenticeship Levy is one area where businesses may see some real benefit in the budget.

Often described as restrictive and not inclusive of small businesses, the levy could be reformed into a more flexible Growth and Skills Levy that would include a broader range of roles and give employers more control over the allocation of funds to ensure training is relevant to their business needs.

With a number of crucial sectors reliant on apprenticeships, including construction and engineering, a reformed levy could help close the skills gap these sectors are facing and meet new building targets announced by the government earlier this year.